For Marnus Labuschagne, the numbers tell a story he can no longer outrun. More than three years have passed since his last Test century, an innings against England at Old Trafford. Across the 47 innings since, he has averaged 22.09. A Test average that stood above 61 in late 2022 has slipped to 43.36, and he has not managed better than 40 in a series since making 207 runs with three fifties against Pakistan at home in 2023-24. Even so, the batter who has been clinging to his place since long before being dropped for three Tests against West Indies after the 2025 World Test Championship final might yet survive, because a vacancy is widely expected to open at the top of the order.
That lifeline comes with its own complications. It is only one thread in a selection tangle confronting Australia with less than a week to repair the fractures exposed by an innings-and-31-run defeat to South Africa in the second Test in Gqeberha. There, Australia were bowled out for 99 in the first innings, a collapse that could force the selectors to make a tough call or two, or perhaps more, before the series decider in Cape Town.
Labuschagne’s own contribution to that collapse summed up his troubles. His loft of off-spinner Simon Harmer into a stiff breeze and toward the long on fence, at a moment when time at the crease was Australia’s only hope of leaving St George’s Park with a series lead, was as damning as his returns: three scores in the 30s from four innings in the series. If he is handed one more chance, the most likely route is opening the batting alongside Travis Head, just as he did in the WTC final defeat last year.
Help should be arriving from elsewhere. Cameron Green and Josh Inglis are expected to be available for the third Test after recovering from injuries picked up during the one-day leg of the tour. Green, who suffered an abdominal strain in the third ODI, spent time in the nets as the second Test unfolded. The 27-year-old once rivalled Labuschagne as the batter under the most pressure, until a defiant century and a half-century from No 5 in the drawn series against Bangladesh bought him credit. Head coach Andrew McDonald has said Green is unlikely to bowl in the Test series, but his batting alone should secure selection if fit, with Australia needing reinforcements for the top six.
Inglis is a different case. The keeper-batter is a mainstay of Australia’s white-ball sides but has not made the most of his red-ball chances since a century on debut against Sri Lanka. Cooper Connolly is also back in contention, though the spin-bowling all-rounder’s hopes of adding to his single Test may depend on whether selectors are willing to back the versatile but underperforming Beau Webster, and on conditions at Newlands.
Then there is the recall that has not worked. Nic Maddinson, brought back after almost a decade in the Test wilderness and more than 18 months without first-class cricket, partly while recovering from testicular cancer, has shown few signs of justifying the gamble. The 34-year-old looked out of his depth on return, managing a 33-ball duck before a quick-fire 48 in Durban offered only a glimmer of hope. Kagiso Rabada has troubled better-established batters than Maddinson, but the manner of his dismissal by the South Africa quick for another duck and an eight in Gqeberha is likely to end the left-hander’s shock selection abruptly.
The awkward truth for the selectors is that Green, Inglis and Connolly are all best suited to the middle order, precisely where the gaps are not, while the problems sit at the top. Shifting Matt Renshaw back up to an opening role he has found comfortable at domestic level could resolve the most glaring issue, freeing a middle-order spot for Green and leaving the door ajar for Inglis or Connolly.
The context for all this is a side unaccustomed to defeat. Australia have not lost a bilateral Test series since early 2023, and have not been beaten by anyone other than India since Pakistan’s 1-0 win in the UAE in 2018, in the wake of “sandpapergate”. The natural state of the team under captain Pat Cummins has been to ride out the highs and lows. But the long road ahead, through the top end of Australia, South Africa, New Zealand at home, then India and England, already looks like being blown off course. Winds of change are finally coming for this team, and this time even Cummins’ unwavering calm might not be enough to weather the storm.