For the thousands of workers whose livelihoods depend on South African goods reaching American shelves, the coming days carry real weight. On 2 November, the United States is expected to announce the outcome of its review of South Africa’s eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the programme that allows local exporters preferential access to the American market. Whatever Washington decides will shape whether that access continues into 2027.
Economist Dawie Roodt, speaking exclusively to YNews, put a number on what exclusion could cost: between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points of economic growth. For the farmers and manufacturers who rely on AGOA, that loss would be felt in specific industries, particularly agriculture and manufacturing. Some exporters, he noted, have already redirected their products to alternative markets. Still, he warned that the blow would land on an economy already struggling to expand.
“It’s not the end of the world. But the main thing here is that the South African economy is hardly growing. And 0.2% of, say, 1% growth is a big deal,” Roodt said.
In his view, the vulnerability of South African businesses and workers to international pressures, from higher oil prices to possible trade restrictions, is made worse by domestic economic weaknesses and what he described as inappropriate macroeconomic policies. The bigger concern, he argued, is not AGOA itself but the country’s already struggling economy.
Meanwhile, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau has sought to reassure those whose jobs hang on the outcome. Briefing social partners at the National Economic Development and Labour Council on Thursday, he said government is preparing for either result and remains confident that the United States will respond favourably to proposals tabled during negotiations. The stakes, as he framed them, are substantial for ordinary workers: bilateral trade between the two countries reached 28.8 billion US dollars in 2025, with more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa and supporting approximately 234,600 jobs. US companies have also made more than $5 billion in investment commitments over the past year.
Tau also tried to put the potential loss of AGOA benefits in perspective for the exporters affected. Only about 10% of South Africa’s exports to the US entered under the programme in 2025, goods valued at $1.7 billion, roughly 1% of the country’s total global exports. He pointed, too, to existing US tariffs on vehicles and automotive parts, as well as steel and aluminium, duties that apply to all US trading partners and add pressure on local exporters already working in a difficult environment.
The backdrop to the decision is a strained relationship between Pretoria and Washington, marked by disagreements over land reform and foreign policy, alongside American demands for greater access to the South African market. Tau said South Africa had tabled practical proposals to address US concerns, but that it would not be appropriate to disclose their details while negotiations remain underway. He stressed that certain constitutional principles, including transformation and land reform, are not up for negotiation, a position that matters deeply to communities watching the process unfold.
International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola has urged government departments and businesses alike to prepare for any eventuality, citing uncertainty surrounding the current US administration. He said South Africa has spent the past two years diversifying its export markets to reduce exposure to a possible exclusion, expanding trade with the African continent, Asia and the European Union, a shift he believes could cushion the impact on exporters and workers should Washington withdraw South Africa’s AGOA eligibility.
Tau echoed that position, describing market diversification as responsible economic planning rather than a rejection of the United States. For now, the exporters, farmers and workers who depend on American market access wait on a decision expected within days, one that will determine how goods made in South Africa reach that market in 2027, and on what terms.
Written by Realeboga Nke, originally reported by Y World Radio Station.